Insights from December 2025
With 2025 closing out, the logistics and transportation industry is navigating a period of adjustment rather than disruption. Manufacturing activity continues to cool, import volumes are easing from recent highs, and regulatory oversight is becoming more active across the supply chain. These shifts are not occurring in isolation. Together, they reflect a broader recalibration of how freight moves, how capacity is managed, and how compliance is enforced.
In this December Insights update, we highlight five developments shaping transportation strategy as the industry looks ahead to 2026. From softening industrial demand and changes in trucking oversight to port leadership transitions, import forecasts, and tighter customs enforcement, these stories provide important context for planning in a slower and more regulated operating environment.
1. Manufacturing Momentum Continues to Cool Heading into 2026
The latest December 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI® data shows that U.S. factory activity continued to shrink for the ninth straight month. December had the lowest rating of the year with a PMI of 47.9. A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing business activity, and December’s result reflects ongoing weakness in new orders and employment alongside slowing inventories. Import and export components of the index also contracted, suggesting that both domestic manufacturing demand and global sales remained under pressure.
Manufacturers and supply executives pointed to persistent cost pressures, including tariffs, and softening demand as key reasons for the downturn. Although production itself remained just in expansion territory, broader indicators paint a picture of an industry struggling at the tail end of 2025. This extended contraction ties into wider economic themes of slowing consumer spending and lower investment in capital goods, which have downstream effects throughout freight and logistics channels.
Transportation Takeaways:
- Industrial Freight Softness: Shippers should anticipate continued weakness in inbound and outbound manufacturing freight as factories limit production.
- Order Flow Caution: New orders remain inconsistent, which can lead to unpredictable shipment schedules and lower volume commitments.
- Delayed Recovery Outlook: Planning for early 2026 should assume muted industrial activity, with stronger demand unlikely until later in the year.
For further details, explore the full Institute for Supply Management report.
2. DOT Targets Unsafe CDL Practices to Strengthen the Trucking Workforce
In December, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) announced a major enforcement action aimed at improving commercial driver safety. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) removed nearly 3,000 commercial driver’s license (CDL) training providers from the national registry because they failed to meet federal training standards. Another roughly 4,500 schools were placed on notice to address compliance issues or face removal.
Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy emphasized that this crackdown targets “CDL mills” that prioritize speed over safety in an effort to raise safety and professionalism in the trucking workforce. While this may create a temporary bottleneck in driver recruitment, major industry associations view it as a necessary step for long-term stability. By removing non-compliant providers, the DOT is ensuring that new entrants to the trucking workforce are properly prepared for the complexities of the road.
Transportation Takeaways:
- Stricter Vetting: Carriers and shippers should double-check that their recruitment partners are in good standing with the updated federal registry.
- Driver Quality Focus: While the quantity of new drivers might dip, the overall quality and safety of the workforce are expected to improve.
- Onboarding Delays: The industry may see slower growth in available trucking capacity as the training system adjusts.
You can find the full statement from the DOT here.
3. Leadership Transition Signals Continuity at a Critical U.S. Port
A new era begins at one of the nation’s most vital trade gateways. The Port of Long Beach has appointed Dr. Noel Hacegaba as its next CEO, effective January 1. This leadership transition comes at a critical time as the port manages record-breaking container volumes while simultaneously pushing for major infrastructure and environmental upgrades.
Hacegaba is expected to prioritize digital transformation and the port’s $3.2 billion capital improvement program. A major focus of his tenure will likely be the “Supply Chain Information Highway,” which is a digital tool designed to improve data sharing across the entire logistics network. This shift toward a “tech-first” port could set the standard for how U.S. gateways operate in the future.
Transportation Takeaways:
- Enhanced Visibility Initiative: The port continues expanding data-sharing initiatives aimed at improving transparency.
- Rail Infrastructure Focus: Much of the port’s upcoming investment is earmarked for on-dock rail, which aims to speed up the movement of goods to the Midwest.
- Sustainability Standards: The port remains committed to zero-emission goals, meaning drayage providers will increasingly need to invest in “green” equipment to maintain access.
Read the full release at POLB.
4. Import Volumes Expected to Stay Under Pressure in Early 2026
According to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, U.S. containerized import volumes are projected to remain below year-ago levels well into 2026. November and December 2025 were forecasted as the slowest months since mid-2023, with a year-over-year decline of roughly 11–12%, reflective of weakening demand for overseas goods.
This anticipated import downturn stems from a confluence of factors: tariff impacts that push import costs higher, elevated inventories among U.S. retailers, and softer consumer demand overall. While there may be modest month-to-month movement early in the year, the underlying volume trend suggests a prolonged period of lower cargo levels through the first quarter of 2026.
Transportation Takeaways:
- Lower Container Demand: Importers should plan for reduced inbound volumes, particularly in discretionary retail categories.
- Capacity Adjustments: Carriers and terminals may respond with service reductions or schedule changes as demand softens.
- Inventory Rebalancing: Many retailers are prioritizing inventory efficiency, leading to fewer large restocking events.
Read the full Port Tracker report at NRF.
5. De Minimis Enforcement Signals a Shift in U.S. Import Oversight
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced that it has collected more than $1 billion in duties tied to enforcement actions addressing abuse of the de minimis exemption. This provision had allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, a rule that rapidly expanded alongside cross-border e-commerce growth and was suspended as of August 29, 2025 through executive order. CBP’s announcement signals a more aggressive posture toward import compliance and revenue collection.
The agency cited increased scrutiny of high-volume shippers and repeat offenders who used de minimis thresholds to avoid duties, inspections, and formal entry requirements. While the exemption itself has not been eliminated, CBP made it clear that enforcement tools are being used more actively. This includes enhanced data analysis, targeting, and penalties for misuse. The move reflects growing concern around trade fairness, supply chain security, and lost tariff revenue.
For importers and logistics providers, the announcement is an early signal that regulatory tolerance is tightening, especially for e-commerce, small-parcel, and consolidated shipments. As enforcement increases, companies relying heavily on de minimis entries may need to reassess compliance practices and cost assumptions heading into 2026.
Transportation Takeaways:
- Higher Compliance Scrutiny: Importers should expect closer review of low-value shipments, particularly high-volume e-commerce flows.
- Cost Structure Reassessment: Companies relying on de minimis exemptions may see higher landed costs as enforcement expands.
- Operational Adjustments: Logistics providers may need to adjust documentation, routing, and customs strategies to avoid delays and penalties.
Review the full release from CBP.
Looking Ahead
As these trends come into focus, one message is clear. The start of 2026 will reward preparation and adaptability more than rapid expansion. Softer demand, evolving regulatory expectations, and shifting import dynamics require logistics teams to stay informed and proactive rather than reactive. For practical guidance to stay ahead, we encourage you to read our recent blog on preparing your supply chain for 2026.
For shippers and supply chain leaders, this means reevaluating freight strategies, compliance practices, and partner relationships to ensure resilience in a changing market. MTA will continue tracking these developments closely and working with customers to help them navigate what comes next with confidence and clarity. If you want to work with a logistics partner you can trust, contact our team today.
