Insights from January 2026
As 2026 begins, several developments across manufacturing, transportation pricing, trucking, technology investment, and maritime oversight stood out across the logistics landscape. While conditions continue to evolve, these updates offer useful context for how freight and supply chain activity is shaping up early in the year.
This month’s Insights highlights a selection of notable industry headlines from January. Each section provides a brief overview of the news and why it matters within the broader transportation and logistics environment.
1. Manufacturing Output Declines for the 10th Consecutive Month
The latest Institute for Supply Management data shows U.S. manufacturing output declining for the tenth consecutive month. While the overall PMI remains in expansion territory, production levels continue to lag as manufacturers adjust to softer demand and elevated uncertainty.
This prolonged slowdown is affecting freight patterns tied to industrial production. Fewer raw material orders, restrained output, and cautious inventory management are resulting in uneven shipping volumes and shorter planning horizons for many manufacturers.
For transportation providers, this environment requires responsiveness rather than scale. Freight tied to manufacturing remains active, but it is less predictable and more sensitive to shifts in customer demand.
Transportation Takeaways:
- Expect continued volatility in manufacturing related freight volumes
- Plan for shorter lead times and fewer long term production commitments
- Flexibility will matter more than capacity expansion in the near term
The ISM report can be found HERE.
2. AI’s Energy Demand Emerges as a Supply Chain Risk
Gartner projects global AI spending to reach $2.5 trillion in 2026, but the report also highlights a growing concern around energy demand. As AI infrastructure expands, power availability is becoming a limiting factor for data centers and supporting industries.
This surge in energy usage has implications beyond technology firms. Increased competition for electricity, equipment, and construction resources can slow infrastructure projects and introduce delays across connected supply chains.
As AI continues to scale, logistics teams may increasingly feel indirect impacts through energy constraints, longer project timelines, and rising operational costs tied to power intensive facilities.
Transportation Takeaways:
- Energy availability is becoming a supply chain planning variable
- Infrastructure related freight may face longer timelines and delays
- Shippers tied to technology growth should plan further ahead
Read the full press release from Gartner HERE.
3. LTL Pricing and Cost Pressure Remain Elevated in Early 2026
The AFS Freight Index for Q1 2026 shows that LTL costs remain elevated, even as overall freight activity stays uneven. While fuel prices and shipment volumes have moderated in some areas, LTL pricing continues to reflect structural cost pressures rather than short term market swings.
According to AFS, carriers are holding firm on base rates and accessorial charges as they manage labor costs, network efficiency, and profitability targets. This suggests that LTL pricing is being shaped less by demand softness and more by disciplined carrier strategies.
For shippers, the result is a cost environment where relief is limited and highly lane specific. LTL spend is increasingly influenced by shipment characteristics, service expectations, and network alignment rather than broad market conditions.
Transportation Takeaways:
- LTL pricing is remaining firm despite mixed freight demand
- Accessorials and shipment profiles are driving cost variability
- Network optimization is key to managing LTL spend in 2026
Download the full freight index forecast from TD Cowen/AFS.
4. Trucking Market Faces Ongoing Economic Uncertainty
New analysis from Freight Transportation Research (FTR) points to continued economic uncertainty across the trucking market. Freight volumes remain inconsistent, and many carriers are operating cautiously as broader economic signals remain mixed.
Capacity has adjusted from previous highs, but confidence has not fully returned. Carriers are prioritizing cost control, selectivity, and balance sheet protection rather than aggressive growth.
This dynamic creates a market that appears stable on the surface but remains sensitive to sudden economic shifts or changes in shipper behavior.
Transportation Takeaways:
- Truckload capacity remains available but fragile
- Carrier selectivity may increase if conditions tighten
- Strong relationships help reduce risk during uncertainty
Learn more at FTR.
5. Laura DiBella Designated as Chairman of the Federal Maritime Commission
The Federal Maritime Commission announced the designation of Laura DiBella as its new Chairman. The appointment marks a leadership transition at the agency responsible for overseeing the U.S. international ocean transportation system and ensuring fair, efficient, and reliable maritime commerce.
The Federal Maritime Commission plays a central role in regulating ocean common carriers, marine terminal operators, and ocean transportation intermediaries. Its mission includes protecting U.S. exporters and importers from unfair practices, monitoring ocean freight market conditions, and enforcing compliance with shipping laws and regulations.
As Chairman, Laura DiBella will guide the Commission’s priorities and operations as global shipping continues to evolve. Leadership changes at the FMC are closely watched by shippers, carriers, and logistics providers due to the agency’s influence on ocean freight oversight and regulatory enforcement.
Transportation Takeaways:
- FMC leadership changes can shape regulatory focus and enforcement priorities
- The Commission oversees fairness and transparency in international ocean shipping
- Shippers should stay aware of FMC activity tied to global trade conditions
Read the FMC’s full press release.
Looking Ahead
Early 2026 reinforces a familiar theme across transportation and logistics. From manufacturing activity and pricing trends to regulatory leadership and global logistics conditions, staying informed remains an important part of planning and coordination.
For shippers, preparation and adaptability will matter more than speed. Those who stay informed and work with logistics partners focused on proactive planning will be better positioned as conditions evolve. Having a logistics partner that is experienced and prepared can help you with this. Contact the team at MTA today.
