The last quarter of 2025 arrives with a very different rulebook than last year. Customs policy has shifted, ocean networks have stabilized under new operating models, and North American surface markets are steady enough that smart shippers can buy capacity on favorable terms.

Policy & Macro Shifts to Plan Around

De minimis law change

On August 29, 2025, the United States ended the $800 duty-free de minimis entry for low-value imports via executive order. As a result:

• Most low-value parcels are now subject to duties, which could increase costs for direct-to-consumer shipments.
• Carriers and postal services have adjusted their processes, which may lead to longer delivery times or temporary service changes.
• Holiday inventory and seasonal products may be affected, so plan for potential delays and ensure your product documentation and classifications are complete and accurate.

Tariff changes

New Section 232 tariffs on wood products are now in effect, and they could impact packaging, fixtures, and build-outs in Q4. Here’s what to know:

• Current and Upcoming Tariffs:
  • 10% on softwood lumber.
  • 25% on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets/vanities, increasing to 30% and 50% respectively on January 1, 2026.
  • All previous wood products originally listed on Annex II have now been removed and are subject to country-specific reciprocal tariff.
  • Additional tariffs on China-origin goods could reach 100% starting in November (final rule and full product scope have not been published yet, stay tuned).

• Operational Considerations:
  • Check product categories and shipping rules to make sure duties are applied correctly. Working with a customs brokerage can help ensure that goods moving across international borders comply with all relevant laws and regulations.
  • Update prices for products affected by the new tariffs.
  • Exploring the option of a foreign trade zone (FTZ) for your shipments for benefits like duty deferral, cost savings and streamlined supply chain management. 
  • Treat any orders shipping later this quarter as at risk for higher import costs, and update your total landed-cost estimates (including duties and freight) before confirming new purchase orders.

Here is a tariff tracker to stay on top of the changes. 

Planning Holiday Demand

Start with what you know. Look at actual sales from Q1–Q3 and the last 8–12 weeks to create a week-by-week forecast for November and December. Adjust for changes this year, such as retailers bringing in inventory earlier than usual, and factor in the expected boost from holiday promotions based on last year’s trends.

Turn this forecast into a buying plan that accounts for supplier lead times, shipping methods, and warehouse intake schedules. For items that previously shipped under the low-value duty exemption, add extra time to account for customs processing and parcel handling.

Capacity & rates snapshot (what Q4 looks like)

Truckload/LTL. August saw slower demand, giving shippers more room to adjust seasonal orders and negotiate better terms. This is a good time to shift some overflow from parcels to LTL shipments where it makes sense—but avoid putting too much on routes that are usually affected by weather in late November and December.

Rail & intermodal. Intermodal volumes have been modestly higher versus 2024, and overall rail traffic has grown on a year-over-year basis through late summer. For shipments with predictable delivery windows, intermodal is still a cost-effective option—especially when you can keep a close eye on inventory near the destination.

Ocean. Global service has stabilized compared with early 2024, with schedule reliability holding around the mid-60% range since May. That predictability is helpful for Q4 planning, but many shipments from Asia–Europe are still rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope while Red Sea risks continue. While ceasefires and peace discussions have aided to slow Houthi attacks against western ships in the Suez Canal, a full return to regular traffic will take time. Treat any improvements there as a bonus rather than your baseline plan. If you’re looking for a way to ensure your shipment is protected when disruptions occur check out our CargoShield Coverage.

Expedited and timely service

Expedite should be used carefully, being applied precisely where needed rather than using it across the board. Identify the products where running out would really hurt Q4 sales or customer experience, and prioritize them with faster shipping options like air or premium ocean/rail. For everything else, move timelines up: receive shipments at your warehouse earlier, schedule delivery windows in advance, and track shipments daily so you can switch carriers before small delays turn into bigger problems. For cross-border parcels now subject to stricter customs rules, allow extra time to avoid bottlenecks.

Diversifying supply chains to adapt to long overseas delivery windows

Two years of Red Sea detours taught the industry to live with longer transit times, that mindset still applies in Q4 of 2025. Balance risk across gateways from East Coast to West Coast for shipments. Match sourcing decisions to tariff sensitivity: use multiple suppliers where it makes sense, and pre-price alternatives now rather than waiting for a rate change to hit.

If you operate regional fulfillment, move a bit more stock closer to demand to reduce reliance on long-haul parcels during the busiest weeks. Until Red Sea passages are consistently proven safe, treat faster options as a bonus and plan lead times around the more reliable Cape routes.

Partner with MTA Lines

Q4 2025 will favor teams that lock in routings early, model tariff scenarios, and build realistic time buffers. MTA partners with shippers to turn this plan into execution—mapping tariff exposure, validating HS codes post–de minimis, securing dependable capacity across modes, and running daily exception management from port to doorstep. Contact MTA, our team is ready to help you land peak season without surprises.

Information current as of publication and subject to change.